Here is an article I wrote a year ago, however it still holds true today and I am proud of the Share Cert line!
After a weekend of articles saying different things, we look to summarise
UK House Prices over the next few years – stick, twist or fold?
Flat, Fall or Rise, what do all these signals mean to you?
Ok firstly, my great mystic aunt Tabatha hasn’t gone to join the people she talks to on the other side and left me her fail safe crystal ball, but I thought with so much information flying about it would be a really good piece to talk about.
House Prices going up? Well we see articles saying that process are now at the level they were at pre-crash http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10789361 but this is a very narrow view from the land registry only covering England and Wales about houses that have sold (and there ain’t billions of them!) So in a market where until a couple of months ago finding the sort of house you wanted to buy was nearly as hard as selling yours it meant that we had a very low volume market. That means pressure on prices can be caused by relatively few sales, so although very few people move, the whole market can look pretty volatile. Verdict: Not a strong signal.
House Prices Going Down? Today has the following story http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10794461 about the rate of rises falling (still with me?). Well getting rid of HIPS (home info packs – “terrible idea, glad to see the back of them” – An English Estate Agent Friend told me) has seen more property hit the market, this makes it more of a buyers market and hey presto supply and demand kicks in and we have less competition per house so the driver of point one stops. BUT prices are still rising, which takes us to my last point. Verdict: Too soon to tell for the longer term.
House Prices going down long term? Over the weekend there were stories about how stocks and shares were a better investment than property over the next 3-5 years, well that might prove to be true, but share certificates are difficult to live in, and the plus side is that that keeps speculators out of the market. The article said that in ‘real terms’ house prices would go down. This means they rise in price slower than inflation, it does’t mean go down necessarily. So you house will be worth similar to what it is now for some time to come.
Verdict:
- Stable prices mean that when you want to sell, both you and the buyer know what it should be worth.
- First Time Buyers know they are not going to get stung and can get on to the ladder safely so we are not risking overheating the market again.
- Any bad news? Well if you are on Interest Only without a repayment plan in place you are starting to store problems; get a review and do something sooner rather than later, it could cost far less in the long run.
- Lastly, our homes wont provide us with pocket money for vanity projects or to clear off the excess spending carried on credit cards. In short, life in the property market might just be a bit dull for the next couple of years, no matter what the headlines say.
